Climate Ready Clyde
Risk and Opportunity
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Methodology

 

How the assessment was undertaken

This assessment is the first stage of a broader three year process to assess and respond to climate change risks and opportunities that will affect Glasgow City Region to the 2080s. The next stage will be developing an Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan based on the priorities identified in this assessment.

Good adaptation is a continuous process of development, implementation, review and improvement. Continuous improvement and building on existing knowledge is built into the Glasgow City Region’s adaptation process.

 
 
Fig 1: Climate Ready Clyde adaptation process

Fig 1: Climate Ready Clyde adaptation process

 
 

The Climate Ready Clyde Secretariat developed a bespoke methodology to undertake the first assessment of the climate change risks and opportunities for the Glasgow City Region:

 
 
Fig 2: High level method for Glasgow City Region Climate Risk and Opportunity Assessment

Fig 2: High level method for Glasgow City Region Climate Risk and Opportunity Assessment

 
 

Step 1: Screen the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) Summary for Scotland to identify a core set of risks and opportunities relevant to the Glasgow City Region.

Step 2: Desk-based evidence review and development of thematic chapters. The core risk and opportunities identified in UKCCRA were analysed, and additional risks and opportunities relevant to the Glasgow City Region were identified. All risks and opportunities were then drawn together into thematic sectors.

Step 3: Develop risk/opportunity registers. The various risks and opportunities were reassembled into bespoke groups of risks and opportunities, grouped by themes.

Step 4: Validate with stakeholders and develop impact chains.  A stakeholder workshop in November 2017 was held to confirm the risks and opportunities in scope, gather evidence of adaptation actions underway, and gain some early insights into priority areas.  The workshop also focused on developing impact chains for a number of risks and opportunities, to identify the relationships between different systems involved.

Step 5: Initial consultation. The secretariat drafted thematic chapters that described risks and opportunities, and identified adaptation actions currently in place or planned through to 2025 to help manage them. These were reviewed by relevant stakeholders.

Step 6: Assign urgency scores to risks and opportunities. The risk and opportunities were allocating provisional risk scores using the method outlined below. A final workshop was held in September 2018 to validate scoring prior to completion of the report.

 

Risk Scoring

Risks and opportunities were scored using a modified version of the Committee on Climate Change’s urgency scoring framework. This framework classifies risks and opportunities into one of four categories:

1 More Action.png

More action needed - New, stronger or different policies or tangible implementation activities, over and above those already planned, are needed in the next five years to reduce long-term vulnerability to climate change.

2 Build Capacity.png

Build understanding and capacity - More work is needed in the next five years to develop the City Region’s response to this risk or opportunity, including allocating resources, filling significant evidence gaps or reducing the uncertainty in the current level of understanding to assess the need for additional action.

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Sustain current action - Current or planned levels of activity are appropriate, but continued implementation of these policies or plans is needed to ensure that the risk continues to be managed in the future. This includes any existing plans to increase or change the current level of activity.

4 Watching brief.png

Watching brief - The evidence in these areas should be kept under review, with long-term monitoring of risk levels and adaptation activity so that further action can be taken if necessary.

The framework is based on understanding the magnitude of the risk or opportunity, the adaptation shortfall, and whether there are further benefits to action over the next five years. Full details of the method, including geographic scope, emissions scenarios, scoring criteria and relationships to other policy, performance and reporting frameworks, is available below.